Osama.

This is coolbert:

Well, where is he??

The hunt has been going on for years now. It is going to be six full years now since 9/11 and still Osama has not been either killed or captured.

What is going on here? One would think that the U.S. military with assistance from the English, the Pakistani, friendly Afghans, etc., would be able to LOCATE Osama and then either kill or take him prisoner. I think that the perception was in the months just after 9/11 that fully focused U.S. power would have accomplished the task quickly, presumably long ago now.

This latest video by Osama has stirred up a lot of interest. The old boy had not been seen for some time now. Now has the dyed beard and wearing civilian attire, no BDU field jacket with the AK in the background as has been visible in previous videos.

Rumored to be now living in Chitral, Pakistan. The tribal areas. NEVER UNDER FULL CONTROL OF THE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT TO BEGIN WITH!! Control ceded to the various tribesmen just to keep the peace, tenuous as it has always been in that part of the world. WAS NEVER UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE FORCES OF THE BRITISH RAJ EITHER!! Concerted decades-long efforts to bring the tribesmen under control also met in failure, the British giving up eventually in their efforts too.

"But informed sources tell CBS News U.S. intelligence believes Osama bin Laden is hiding out in the Chitral district of northern Pakistan. A number of reports from human sources, including some alleged sightings, have put him there, reports CBS News national security correspondent David Martin."

"None of the reports has been independently confirmed, but there are enough of them to persuade intelligence analysts that it's his most likely location."

"Chitral is a remote, rugged area governed by tribes that will not allow even the Pakistani army to operate there."

[Osama in advance, far in advance, makes alliances with local tribal leaders and warlords for protection. Also has his own people intermarry with the local women, so as to solidify bonds of kinship and a oneness with the umma'.]

Waziristan, Chitral, etc. Areas and a part of the world uncontrollable by the "central governments" of any nation.

A recent National Geographic magazine had an entire article devoted to the Waziristan and North West Frontier region of Pakistan. Seems that almost a hundred years ago now, the British conducted a man-hunt for a local Islamic agitator that lasted for TWENTY YEARS WITHOUT SUCCESS!! The wanted man never being caught, dying a natural death!! Regarding the current hunt for Osama, this precedent DOES NOT bode well.

Chitral seems to be almost a paradise on earth. Where the borders of Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China almost all come together. Was at one time a popular tourist destination. Has tourists now of a different stripe!!??

coolbert.

Red Mosque III. [Conclusion]

This is coolbert:

The siege of the Red Mosque is over. A yesterday blog topic is today’s old news.

Pakistani security forces have stormed the mosque and captured the facility without a lot of bloodshed [23 dead??]. The situation seems to be in hand.

Some surprising aspects to this entire “incident”.

The Red Mosque is [was?] a religious compound [madrassa] sponsored by the Pakistani government, established and maintained by government funds.

The “siege” has been on going for almost seven months. ONLY became heated and violent in the last several weeks.

Fundamentalist clerics had been dispensing Taliban-style morality and justice from the mosque for some time prior to the siege as well!

One high-ranking cleric attempted to escape dressed in a burqa. But was unsuccessful in the effort and apprehended!

Yet another high-ranking cleric remains hold up in the woman’s section of the mosque, cowering among women and children, hoping for martyrdom!!

The Pakistani authorities were extremely lenient and tolerant of fundamentalist clerics who had occupied the Red Mosque and who [clerics] had attempted to carry out Taliban-style extra-judicial “justice”.

Musharraf walks a tight rope. I fear he cannot maintain his balance FOREVER! Walks the proverbial fine line. On one hand have pro-democracy groups that dislike the General for his usurpation of civilian rule. On the other hand have the Islamic fundamentalist clerics who despise his alliance with the U.S.

The target of many assassination attempts now. So far has been very lucky. How long can Musharraf hold on to power? That is anyone’s guess!!

Hope for the best, but plan for the worst!!??

coolbert.

Red Mosque II.

This is coolbert:

Go to these links to see some good dope on the situation at the Red Mosque.

http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/detailed_news.asp?date1=7/9/2007#6

http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/detailed_news.asp?date1=7/9/2007#7

From the South Asia Terrorist Portal.

I have recommended this site previously. Very well done by persons who can claim to be experts on the battle against terrorism. Persons well connected to the Indian government and the security forces of the same nation?

It seems that there is GOOD reason for the Pakistani military and police to be so KEEN on resolving the Red Mosque stand-off in a manner favorable to the Islamabad government.

“Nine suspected terrorists said to be far more dangerous and harmful than al Qaeda and Taliban operatives were hiding inside the mosque compound,”

FAR MORE DANGEROUS AND HARMFUL!!?? We shall see!

coolbert.

Red Mosque I.

This is coolbert:

Has everyone been following the confrontation taking place right now at the Red Mosque, Islamabad, Pakistan?

This has great potential to blow up into a catastrophe.

Madrassa educated Taliban-type students have occupied the mosque and are currently besieged by Pakistani security forces.

As usual, with these situations, the authorities have to walk around as if they were stepping on eggshells and hoping not to break any of them. Defuse the situation, maintain law and order without causing “incidents” that will further exacerbate existing tensions. NOT to arouse an emotional response that might snowball out of control.

"Islamabad will become like Baghdad if the government commits aggression against the Red Mosque and kills me" [says a leading cleric inside the mosque!]

As I have said repeatedly, the Islamic societies have a BAD tendency to work themselves into a frenzy over matters which to the rest of the world seem to appear as trivialities. Rumors are enough to cause a mob to become enraged beyond control. Even a rumor of a rumor is enough to get the juices flowing in some instances.

"Emotion clouds reason" - - Michael Corleone.

And, another assassination attempt was made on Musharraf the other day. Tried to shoot down his plane as it was taking off, nearly succeeding in doing so.

[there have been now REPEATED assassination attempts on Musharraf!!]

I have often thought that since 9/11, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia have to be the two places on the earth that U.S. planners are most worried about. If either one of those two nations go under from a combination of anarchy and internal insurrection, the ENTIRE WORLD COULD FIND ITSELF IN THE PROVERBIAL DEEP DOO-DOO!!

[for those foreign readers, DOO-DOO is a colloquial American expression meaning shit, scat, stront, scheisse, merde, skit, go’wno. ]

If Saudi Arabia disintegrates into anarchy or total internal insurrection the oil supply of the ENTIRE WORLD will strained beyond belief. Chaos will ensue on a scale the likes of which has NEVER been seen!

Pakistan of course has an arsenal of forty to fifty atomic bombs. With production facilities to make more [is in the process of continuing production??]. If Musharraf goes - - through whatever means - - coup’, assassination, rebellion, etc., what then!!?? Atomic weapons and the means of production may fall into the hands of madrassa educated students of the Taliban persuasion??!!

[even if the situation at the Red Mosque does not worsen and the siege ends peacefully, it is indicative of a large degree of instability present in Pakistan.]

The potential consequences are “too awful to contemplate”!!?? But must be contemplated! The governments of the United States [world power] and India [regional power] HAVE TO BE watching the events of the Red Mosque closely. One wrong move and the world may be changed in a way that EVERYONE will deeply regret!!

coolbert.

Pakistan.

This is coolbert:

Yes, the situation with Pakistan could be of great danger for the U.S. If Mushareff was to go down, and the fundamentalists take over, we would all be in very great danger.

Paki has perhaps 40-50 A-bombs now. Making more as we speak?! Probably so.

And Mushareff survived two assassination attempts the last month. A lot of people saw this as a prelude to renewed attacks upon the U.S. by Al Qaeda. Sort of like when Masood was assassinated two days before the 9/11 attacks. Masood was the only go-to guy left in Afghan at the time for the U.S.

40-50 A-bombs in the hands of Al Qaeda would be just catastrophic. As I have told others before, these guys would not only use the bombs, they would welcome retaliation in kind. To antagonize the whole Islamic world against the U.S. more.

coolbert