Source?

This is coolbert:

Here is another article from the International Herald Tribune. Deals with the personalities involved, or at least thought to be involved in the North Korean atomic bomb program.

This article is a compilation of the typical "open source" type of material that intelligence service analysts use on a routine basis.

The persons who have been instrumental in the development of the North Korean atomic bomb of course would be of immense interest to intelligence agencies the world over.

But, as with all things North Korean, a lot of secrecy is involved on the part of Kim [Kim the Elder and Kim the Younger both] and his gang. Information is sparse. A lot of inference has to be used.

"These people have been celebrated at home for founding and guiding the North's nuclear program, but because of the secrecy surrounding the effort, almost no one, even there, knows who they are."

[EVEN THERE. North Korea of course!!]

With a nation as security conscious as North Korea, reasonable inferences based upon "open source material" are a valid way for intelligence analysts to arrive at conclusions.

However, such material as the "open source" is NOT what your intelligence analyst ONLY wants to work with. "Open source" is useful, but NOT equal to SECRET material obtained through espionage. Details and the "real stuff" can be had only through espionage.

Espionage as enunciated 2500 years ago by Sun Tzu. Espionage in this case characterized by what Sun describes as the inward spy:

"Having inward spies means making use of officials of the enemy. Worthy men who have been degraded . . . criminals . . . favorite concubines . . . men who are aggrieved . . . others who are anxious that their side should be defeated . . . fickle turncoats"

HOW does one recruit such persons to pass on secret details of North Korean nuclear plans and weaponry and personalities involved with same??

Especially with a nation AS SECURITY CONSCIOUS AS THE NORTH??!!

NO ONE said this was going to be easy. Recruit diplomats or representatives when they travel from North Korea to other nations - - for whatever reason?

This is the sort of think intelligence agencies are supposed to be ABLE to do. Is it done? In only a few instances, maybe. "Open source" just seems to be so much easier!!

coolbert.

124th Army Unit III. [End]

This is coolbert:

Of the thirty two [or is it thirty one North Koreans?] that attacked the "Blue House", allegedly only one survived. Wounded, but captured, was Kim Sin-jo.

[the jury is still out, and probably always will be, regarding the exact numbers involved in the attack on the "Blue House". Some say it was thirty one North Koreans, others say thirty. My recollection was that it was thirty two. Some say that one North Korean escaped in the aftermath of the abortive attack and managed to make it back to North Korea [now a high ranking General officer??!!] For the purposes of this blog entry, I will say that the "Blue House" attackers numbered thirty two [eight teams of four men each]]

Kim is still alive. Lives now in South Korea, is a free man, and a RESPECTED AND HIGHLY LIKE PROTESTANT MINISTER!! This man has had a change in his life if anyone ever has had!!

Kim, during his what was probably a prolonged and extensive interrogation and debriefing, WAS talkative.

Regarding the training for the "Blue House" raid, there is one particular anecdotal account of Kim's that stands out.

An anecdotal account that the average person just does not believe is possible. "This just cannot be, this is fantasy".

Kim described how his thirty two man cut-throat unit carried out, repeatedly, a penetration exercise.

A penetration exercise that had the goal of gaining entry to a building defended by a unit of conventional North Korean soldiers.

[the cut-throat special operations troop against the common soldier.]

During this series of exercises, neither the attacker or defender was allowed weapons of any type. Bare hands ONLY [feet with boots on them of course were included] was permissible for both sides. All and any martial arts techniques could be used by both sides, but NO weapons of any type.

[keep in mind that the troops of the 124th Army unit were highly trained in martial arts. NOT just tae kwon do, but a combination of judo, tae kwon do, wrestling, boxing, knife fighting. The South Korean has a military martial arts form taught to it's Special Operations troops called teukgong moosool. The North Koreans must have something similar.]

Common North Korean soldiers defending a building, the thirty two elites attempting to penetrate the building, the defenders trying to stop them. Both sides going at one another with fists and feet. But NOT an uncontrolled melee'. Soldiers on either side fighting as soldiers, as a team.

Here is where it gets unbelievable.

According to the account of Kim, ONLY WHEN THE DEFENDING UNIT OF COMMON NORTH KOREAN SOLDIERS NUMBERED FIVE HUNDRED TROOPS WERE THEY ABLE TO STOP THE ATTACKING UNIT OF THIRTY TWO CUT-THROAT ELITES FROM GAINING ENTRY TO THE BUILDING BEING DEFENDED!!!

TO STOP THIRTY TWO MEN, FIVE HUNDRED WERE REQUIRED!!!???

[Kim related how during these series of exercises, participants on BOTH sides often required hospitalization for broken bones, concussions, etc.]

Does this sound believable?

Is this rational or reasonable?

Is this plausible or even remotely possible?

My response would be YES!!

The five hundred defenders DO NOT know the time and place where the attack is going to occur. They must guard all directions simultaneously. They must DISPERSE their force.

"a defensive weapon [five hundred common soldiers]- part of a passive system. Any defensive system involves . . . dispersal". [Suvorov]

"They [the thirty two cut-throats] are an offensive weapon and they have the initiative in battle". [Suvorov]

That thirty two man unit attacking the five hundred defenders is on the attack, the latter on the defensive. The attacker has the initiative, the defender, the lack thereof. The attacker chooses the time and place of the attack. Those thirty two cut-throats use CONCENTRATED FORCE FOCUSED ON ONE SPECIFIC SPOT. THEY ACHIEVE OVERWHELMING MASS AT A WEAK SPOT AND OVERPOWER THE DEFENDERS. The concentrated combat power of the attacker [bare hands only, but still potent], focused at one weak point in the defense, multiplied through surprise and team work of the cut-throats working together, allows for the defenders to be defeated.

Several of the basic principles of war are at work here. To include:

* Offensive.

* Mass.

* Surprise.

What Kim says occurred is totally reasonable, plausible, and probably did in fact happen exactly as he says it did.

This is not rocket science. Just a bunch of soldiers, highly trained, motivated, and dangerous, working as a team to achieve the object. NO trickery or gadgets required here.

Understandable? YES!

coolbert.

124th Army Unit II.

This is coolbert:

In my previous blog, I mentioned how U.S. High Command authorities had made the decision NOT to retaliate in response to incursions by infiltrators of the North Korean 124th Army unit. The cut throat elite of the North Korean military responsible for among other things, the attack on the South Korean Presidential residence, the "Blue House".

[this of course during the period 1968-1969.]

NO retaliation was to be made by AMERICAN forces against North Korea. This decision was made. American units were NOT forbidden to defend themselves if attacked, obviously, but offensive action in kind was not allowed.

South Korean military units were not so inhibited. The South Korean government, especially after the attack on the "Blue House", decided to take sterner measures. Tit-for-tat WAS in the works, as far as the South Koreans were concerned.

A South Korean "military unit", and I use that term military unit advisedly, was formed, for an assassination mission north of the DMZ. The target WAS Kim Il Sung, the man who in all likelihood ordered the attack on the "Blue House" to begin with.

This was the origin of the Sil-mi-do unit. Thirty one men [the same number as the number of North Koreans that attacked the "Blue House"], was recruited, trained, and prepared for action against North Korea.

This entire episode backfired big time on the South Koreans.

The unit never did make it north. Was put through an intensive period of training, again, that bordered on the sadistic, but never deployed for action.

In fact, rebelled, killed their instructors and mentors, and:

"They seized buses and blasted their way through police blockades, killing a police officer and a child along the way.

Once in Seoul, they encountered a roadblock of soldiers. After a gunbattle, the outnumbered rebels finally blew themselves up with grenades. Four survivors were executed."

RATHER THAN ATTACKING NORTHWARD, THIS UNIT OF MALCONTENTS ATTACKED SOUTHWARD, TOWARD THEIR ERSTWHILE MASTERS IN SEOUL, WITH THE INTENTION OF WREAKING REVENGE OF THE MOST HORRIBLE SORT!!

One aspect of this entire "military operation" has to be really condemned from the start.

"They were bootblacks, hobos, acrobats - 31 ex-cons and ruffians plucked out of prison or off the streets and offered one last chance for redemption."

This is absurd. These are the last people you want to recruit for a mission such as was proposed. Such persons make POOR soldiers. Their characters have already been formed, and probably for the worst. This was the worst possible material to recruit. Period!

``Seven of them died in training, 20 were killed in a rebellion and the four survivors were put to death after military trial,’’

Seven died in training. SEVEN DIED IN TRAINING!! What sort of training was this? Brutal, sadistic, etc!! Sort of like what the NKPA 124th Unit endured also. All of it to no avail!!

The best laid plans of mice and men, and all that sort of stuff!!

coolbert.

124th Army Unit I.

This is coolbert:

During my fourteen month tour of duty in Korea [1968-1969], the greatest danger to American troops was from the North Korean 124th Army unit.

A ranger/commando/special operations unit. A unit comprising the cut-throat elite of the North Korean army.

A unit numbering several thousand men, the basic organization being a four man team. The size of a unit for a particular mission would be task tailored, total size being a factor of the number of four man teams required.

[for the attack on the South Korean "Blue House", a unit of 32 troops was created. Eight teams of four men each, 8 X 4 = 32.]

A North Korean army unit formed to initiate and carry out unconventional warfare [UW] operations in South Korea.

This "cut-throat" unit had troops that were of a SPECIAL caliber.

* Consisted of officers only. NO non-commissioned officers or enlisted.

* Was of men already possessing a black belt in Korean martial arts [tae kwon do].

* Men that had a minimum of ten years of active duty service.

Troops selected for the 124th Army unit, soldiers that already had demonstrated ability, had their skills developed to a much higher degree upon selection and entry into the ranks of the "elite".

Furthered their soldiering skills by intensive training that at times bordered on the sadistic.

Training that included:

* Specialized martial arts training. In addition to the tae kwon do ability, 124th Army unit soldiers received intensive instruction in knife fighting, wrestling, boxing, sentry elimination. In was not uncommon for a whole unit to level a forest of saplings with their BARE HANDS during exercises.

* Physical training, again, that bordered upon the sadistic. An ability to move 100 miles a day cross-country while carrying a 65 pound pack was stressed. Physical training would consist of running cross-country BARE FOOT WITH LEAD WEIGHTS strapped to the legs.

* Weapons training using the weaponry as utilized by the UW soldier. The sniper rifle, demolitions, mines. A lot of emphasis was placed on each and every soldier becoming an expert with the sniper rifle.

* Map reading, land navigation, reconnaissance. All this done at night. Obvious. YOU CANNOT move 100 miles in a day cross-country without being able to find your way.

* Parachute, air mobile, and amphibious landing techniques. 124th Army units could infiltrate South Korean territory from sea, air, land.

[reminds you of the U.S. Navy SEALS [Sea-Air-Land], does it not??!!]

This IS the type of training you do find in ranger/commando/special operations units throughout the various militaries of the world. It should be realized that North Koreans carried out this training with a fanaticism NOT found ANYWHERE ELSE!! The object was to create a soldier that would carry out his mission, heedless of danger to himself or his fellow troops.

[this sounds a lot like the Spetsnaz type of training given the "special purpose" troops of the Soviet Army. Just more severe and harsh and demanding. SADISTIC!]

The existence of the 124th Army unit became public knowledge with the attack on the South Korean Presidential residence, the "Blue House". This occurring in 1969.

"in January 1968, North Korea sent 30 commandos disguised as South Korean guerrillas to the Blue House in Seoul to kill South KoreaÂ’s President Park Chung Hee. Kim Il Sung had hoped this action would incite an uprising in the South and a subsequent request for military aid from the North, thus leading to reunification. But the commandos were captured, all but one were killed, and the failed plot was exposed."

[see an even better description of the raid here.]

[all these articles say that there were 31 infiltrators. I recall something different with regard to that number!!]

The actual number of North Korean commandos was thirty two [8 X 4 = 32??!!]. The attack almost succeeded, the infiltrators getting to with several blocks of the Blue House before being detected. One North Korean [this was Kim Sin-jo] was captured, all the rest being killed. This man proved to be very willing and able to talk, becoming a valuable source of intelligence on the 124th Army unit.

[I do not think torture was used in the case of the captured fanatic. He realized the jig was up and he had better cooperate. Otherwise it would become very unpleasant for him. And I think the South Koreans also realized an ounce of sugar in this case far outweighed the pound ofvinegarr.]

Subsequent to the Blue House raid, the 124th Army unit conducted further limited raids, ambushes, and mining against both American and South Korean units. Everyone was on edge. These folks [North Korean commandos], could and would appear anywhere at any time, and with a vengeance too. They meant to kill. Particularly galling to American soldiers WAS THAT THE DECISION HAD BEEN MADE BY THE U.S. HIGH COMMAND THAT AMERICAN RETALIATION FOR SUCH ATTACKS WAS OUT OF THE QUESTION!! The North Koreans understood this and provoked without inhibitions, NOT FEARING the consequences.

Being stationed in Korea during the period 1968-1969 could be hazardous to your health!!

coolbert.

Flying Horse.

This is coolbert:

North Korea seems at this exact moment to be THE topic on the internet. Very big. As big as almost nothing else ever is.

"Over the past two weeks the talk of the international stage has been North Korean president Kim Jong Il and his testing of a nuclear weapon."

The detonation of nuclear weapon the DPRK [Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea], commie North Korea, has really startled the world in a BIG WAY.

And now it is announced that the North Koreans may be ready to test a SECOND nuclear weapon. According to the "experts". And the first announced test has been "confirmed" as not being a "fizzle", but was a real-honest-to-GOD nuclear detonation. That the DPRK could detonate a SECOND bomb so close to the explosion of the first bomb IS coming as an additional surprise to the "experts".

NONE of these developments with nuclear weapons should have come as a surprise to the "experts".

As I have said, the North Koreans seem to really have a pretty good indigenous weapons industry. Know what they are doing and do it well.

Have been able to take a basic weapon and modify it beyond recognition. Create a much more potent and able weapons system. In this regard, their ordnance experts seem to be a lot like that of another small but able nation, Israel.

Take two weapons systems employed by the North Koreans. Systems deployed in NUMBERS.

One such weapons system is the main-battle-tank [MBT] of the North Koreans. Called the Ch'onma-ho [Flying Horse]. Based upon a Soviet design from 1962. This was originally the Soviet T-62 tank. NOT considered by contemporary standards to be an adequate machine. The successor to the T-62 was the Soviet T-64/72/80. Fielded by the Soviets in large numbers and encountered by U.S. forces in Iraq. WAS NOT a match for the American M-1 Abrams. The North Koreans have been able, evidently, to improve and modify the basic T-62 in such a manner as to be able to create a much more formidable machine. A machine, that if encountered by U.S. forces in NUMBERS, as it would be, would present difficulties for American tankers.

[such is the level of secrecy with the North Koreans that there does not even seem to exist a GOOD picture anywhere of the Ch'onma-ho tank. NOT even one really good and up close picture exists of this North Korean tank!!??]

It is also reputed that the follow-on version to the Ch'onma-ho tank is the M-2002. A North Korean improved version of the Russian T-90 tank. How the T-90 could be IMPROVED to begin with is a good question. The T-90 is already a formidable weapon. Considered to be a MATCH already for the M-1 Abrams and perhaps even SUPERIOR in some regards. Again, it would seem the North Koreans have taken a basic Russian weapon and made it BETTER.

All this through their own efforts. Amazing for a nation at the brink or already over the edge of STARVATION.

A second weapons system that illustrates the indigenous design capability of the North Koreans is the Koksan 170 mm gun. A self-propelled gun that was used by the Iranians with SUCCESS in their war with Iraq in the late 1980's. WAS an effective weapon. For A TIME THIS WEAPON HAD THE GREATEST RANGE OF ANY PIECE OF ARTILLERY IN THE WORLD!!

[range by itself is NOT enough!! You want range with ACCURACY!! Obvious!! But, that the North Koreans were able to even FIELD such a piece of artillery is indicative of good weapons design that is the equal of just about anyone else in the world!!]

Again, this from a nation at the brink or already over the edge of STARVATION!!

coolbert.

Jong Il.

This is coolbert:

Visit this web site and read how one journalist put together a story [called a "profile" in this case], on the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il.

"The Paper Profile

How Peter Maass reported the story of a reclusive dictator."

The journalist Peter Maass was able to amass data on the dictator Kim Jong Il and organize into a "story".

[please do not confuse this Peter Maass with Peter Maas. The latter is a famous author who has written a variety of books on organized crime and figures associated with same. They are not one and same person!]

The story, called a "profile" WAS printed in the New Duranty Times [New York Times].

What Maass did was almost identical to what an intelligence research analyst working for the any one of many U.S. intelligence agencies would have done. Amass a body of data, reports, stories, books, interviews, etc. Extract the relevant material and organize into a cogent form.

Sources mentioned by Maass include:

* People who get quoted in newspapers and go on TV to talk about North Korea.

* A book by Konstantin Pulikovsky. [a Russian official who had been Vladimir Putin’s representative on Kim Jong Il's 2001 rail tour of Russia.]

* The memoir by Hwang Jang Yop. [Kim Jong Il's father's closest advisor for more than thirty years before fleeing North Korea.]

* A book by Choi Eun Hee, a South Korean actress, and Shin Sang Ok, her film-director husband. [both kidnapped by Kim and held captive in North Korea for years before release.]

* An unofficial transcript of meetings between Kim and South Korean media executives that occurred in the year 2000.

From this amount of "background" information, Maass was able to write his story on Kim. Probably an accurate one too.

Maass comments on what is out there and how it can be gotten:

"I thought it would be very hard to get any primary sources on Kim Jong Il," Maass explains. "And it ended up not being easy to get those sources -- I mean, I had to dig around a lot -- but it wasn't great sleuthing."

This sort of stuff can be done. Even by the person who is not an intelligence research analyst. As Maass would say, not easy, but not THAT difficult with some work.

Let me qualify that. The work of a newspaper reporter is quite analogous to the workings of an espionage case officer or an undercover spy. Find sources of information on a subject and develop those sources. That is what Maass did here.

[the various "authorities" on intelligence matters state that a large amount of information they use for analysis is based on what are called "open source material". Stuff that is available for almost anyone to find if they put the time and effort into doing so. And this sort of "stuff" is valuable. But what is most of interest to intelligence agencies is SECRET stuff. "Stuff" not readily available and being kept hidden for whatever reason. Allen Dulles said that about 80 % of what the CIA uses in it's analysis is based on open source material. It is the other 20 % that is of the most interest. The 20 % that spies and intelligence case officers the world over are striving to get their hands on!!]

coolbert.

AG-1

This is coolbert:

Ever since the announced test of the North Korean nuke, the evening news has been playing over and over films of NKPA [North Korean Peoples Army] military displays.

Ostentatious, elaborate, and very impressive displays of weaponry and troops. Done in the Stalinist manner.

They constantly show missiles, the SA-3 mostly. The SA-3 is an anti-aircraft missile, surface-to-air [SAM] from way back when. A Soviet design either bought or copied by the North Koreans.

Another missile highlighted over and over was not known to me. I had to do some research on this one. A rather large missile, carried on a tracked vehicle.




This appears to be a NKPA version of what is called an anti-shipping missile. Called in the western military the AG-1. A liquid-propelled missile with solid-state booster.

"North Korea has not only developed the capacity to produce the HY-2 missile on its own, but has also modified the original design to achieve a longer range. In June 1994, North Korea surprised Western intelligence officials when it first tested an indigenously modified Seersucker to a range of 160 kilometers.[8] Over three years later, Western intelligence dubbed the missile the AG-1, when the system was tested again to a range of roughly 200 kilometers."

Originally was the Styx Soviet anti-shipping missile.



Then the Chinese Silkworm. An improved version of the Styx. And now the NKPA AG-1.

Apparently a much improved version from the original Styx. Is on a tracked vehicle. Self-propelled. With all sorts of improvements. Maybe it is based on what is now an ancient design. But has modified to make it much better. The NKPA HAS a very good indigenous weapons design and research apparatus. This missile seems to be another result of NKPA innovation at work.

[advanced versions of the CHINESE Silkworm have these features:

* active radar and precision radio altimeter.

* passive infrared target seeker.

* monopulse guidance radar.

* television guidance.]

If I was an American military planner, this is the missile I would be worried about. NOT the Taepong-do or the Naepong-do or whatever it is called. Don't so much worry about LONG-RANGE NKPA missiles as worry about the AG-1. This "anti-ship" missile would to me have a capability that is not limited to an "anti-ship" role. Probably has the capability to deliver a nuclear warhead on target against land based targets a lot easier and better than a long-range missile. NOT long-range, but adequate for the task.

This particular photo shows a Chinese Silkworm being prepped for firing. Note the chemical suits and masks. I bet that liquid propellent is hazardous to your lungs and skin.

coolbert.

Kim!

This is coolbert:

There has been a lot of speculation over the years regarding the North Korean dictator Kim Jong Il. Psychoanalysis done from afar. "Experts", including those from the CIA, have supposedly pored over open source and "secret" material in an attempt to "understand" the dictator and what makes him tick.

This sort of thing was done with Adolf Hitler. With mixed results. It seems that a lot of the source material for Hitler came from a man who had a reputation as a blackmailer. A man who would create "stories" to discredit a famous individual. Consider that if the source is poor, the result will be poor too. This is easily understandable. Garbage in = garbage out [GIGO].

As I have said, a lot of this sort of psychoanalysis done from afar has been applied to the North Korean dictator. And evidently persons at the highest level of government, such as Secretatry of State Albright, have been briefed on such analysis prior to meeting with Kim. Albright even mentioned that this was so. Also mentioned that what she had been told was at ODDS with what the true nature of Kim was. She was surprised.

In the aftermath of the nuke detonation by the north, this sort of analysis has become rife. "Experts" of all sorts are making their analysis known. With lurid headlines to boot.

Consider these news items hot off the presses [the internet actually]:

"Mad, bad and very cunning

The puzzling psyche of North Korea's leader is on display"

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2006/07/23/INGURK0MSU1.DTL

"Kim Has Case of 'Malign Narcissism,' Expert Says"

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-kim11oct11,0,1612349,full.story?coll=la-home-headlines

"North Korea's enigmatic leader Kim Jong Il demands the finest food and drink. But while he indulges, his countrymen starve."

http://www.rickross.com/reference/nkorea/nkorea26.html

"Puzzling psyche", "malign narcissism", "enigmatic"!!!???

NO, just a plain ordinary bad old guy. That is all!!!

coolbert.

Coup?

This is coolbert:

North Korea has often been described by most of the persons who do "analysis" of U.S. intelligence capabilities as a place where normal intelligence gathering is more or less impossible.

["Terra incognito" is the proper term to use.]

This is due to a variety of reason. One of which is that Korea has for centuries always been known as the "hermit kingdom". A nation unto itself, not having a lot of contact with the outside world. Withdrawn and NOT seeking normal relations with other nations.

Espionage as normally understood is more or less out of the question when it comes to North Korea. NOT only with the current atomic test, BUT WILL ALL THINGS NORTH KOREAN.

Case in point is what may have been a revolt by a North Korean Army Corps that occurred in 1995. A revolt that western intelligence did not even know about UNTIL FOUR YEARS LATER!!

[a corps is generally a collection of army divisions, two or three usually. North Korea has twelve corps [??] in the NKPA. [North Korea Peoples Army]]

As reported on one web site:

"In 1995, the officers of the 6th Army Corps -- the unit in charge of the worst famine areas -- hatched a plan to storm Pyongyang in conjunction with the neighboring 7th Corps. The plot was sabotaged by informers, who were then promoted to top positions within the units."

It would seem that this mutiny/revolt/coup d' e'tat was not all it was cracked up to be either:

"the U.S. embassy reported evidence of a revolt by the army's sixth corps in the northeastern province of North Hamgyong in 1995 -- may have been more complicated than it appears at first sight. A veteran foreign analyst in Seoul told me it was more of a 'squabble among thieves,' after the sixth corps refused to turn over to a greedy leadership in Pyongyang the hard currency it had made through illicit activities such as opium smuggling."

Nonetheless, that U.S. intelligence did not find out about this "event" until FOUR YEARS AFTER THE FACT is troubling. This is the type of "thing" you want your intelligence services to know about either before it happens or AS IT IS HAPPENING!!

The ball was dropped here?? In at other times too?? It would seem so!!

coolbert.

Mad-man?

This is coolbert:

I am watching U.S. Ambassador John Bolton address the U.N. on the North Korean situation this afternoon.

Suggestions have been made as to what can be done to bring the North Koreans to heel. NOT a lot of good ideas are forthcoming. For good reason. NOT a whole lot can be done, period.

Some sort of embargo is in the works.

For imported military hardware and luxury consumer goods.

That will do almost NO GOOD at all.

NO, will not DO ANY GOOD at all.

North Korea is an exporter of military hardware. They have a pretty good indigenous military research, design, and manufacturing capacity. They may not have any need to import ANY military hardware at all.

And as for LUXURY goods for the consumer market. That is just poppycock. There IS NO consumer market. The average North Korean is living on the edge of existence already. They cannot even afford luxury items, even if they were available, which they are not. The elites, what there are of them, probably do indulge themselves, but that is such a small number of persons to begin with. They have what they need already stockpiled against such an eventuality as an embargo. All the imported cognac, Russian horses, spare parts for the Mercedes, etc.

And the thinking is now that the North Korean test may have been a DUD. A fizzled nuclear test is what it is being referred to now. But no one is certain. A WC-135 reconnaissance aircraft has been "sampling" the air over the Sea of Japan, trying to pick up radioactive particles perhaps blown aloft by the test. But if the test was far underground, there may BE NO particles to pick up at all. Results from seismic stations the world over are being scanned. But the data is INCONCLUSIVE!!

This situation with North Korea is one big mess. But that is what the mad-man of Pyongyang wants. If the nuclear test was a failure, well, even that is NOT much of a problem for Kim Jong Il. Let the world GUESS!!

[read what the mad-man of Pyongyang wants. Very interesting interview!]

coolbert.

CTBT - IMS.

This is coolbert:

Of course, the hot button item on CNN and all the other news networks today is the purported North Korean nuclear test.

Announced by the mad-man of Pyongyang himself today.

A NUCLEAR WEAPONS TEST. NOT just the test of a DEVICE. But of a weapon. Deployable and ready to go NOW!

It is also amazing to me to read the instantaneous and seemingly off-the-cuff-comments made by the governments of the nations closest physically to North Korea.

Such as:

* This was a detonation of about 500 tons - - South Korea. [battlefield size nuke]

* This was the detonation of a neutron bomb - - Communist China. [enhanced radiation weapon]

* This was a detonation of about 15 kilotons - - Russia. [Hiroshima size weapon]

Well, what is it??!!

Judgments and pronouncements of this nature at this time are probably not warranted or advisable until all the data is in.

Judgments and analysis based upon data from the nuclear monitoring systems of the various concerned nations AND the IMS [International Monitoring System].

The latter, 337 stations located throughout the planet. Designed to detect and monitor a nuclear detonation, anywhere in the world. Quite an impressive system.

Uses four methods to detect nuclear bursts:

* Seismic. [shock waves from the burst create earthquake-like seismic activity.]

* Infra-sound. [long distance traveling sub-audio sound waves created by the nuke.]

* Hydro-acoustic. [under-water detonation creates sound waves detectable too.]

* Radio-nuclide. [minute radioactive particles carried into the upper atmosphere.]

A monitoring system, however, that would seem to be faulty. A system that has been designed, from what I surmise, with the intent of detecting 1950's style nuclear testing. That is to say, above-ground detonations. To my knowledge, NO ONE TESTS THIS WAY ANYMORE! Nuclear powers that still test, and I am not sure who they are any more, will either dig a deep mine shaft or a tunnel into the side of a mountain, and detonate the weapon UNDERGROUND.

UNDERGROUND testing as currently done seems to obviate three of the four methods used to detect nuclear detonations.

With underground tests, you will not have infra-sound, hydro-acoustic, or radio-nucleids.

You will still have seismic detection, but that is all. Maybe that is ENOUGH.

[American Vela satellites that have been orbiting the earth for forty years or so now ALSO WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DETECT THE CURRENT NORTH KOREAN TEST, IF IT DID OCCUR. LOOKS FOR THE LIGHT FLASH OF A NUCLEAR BURST ABOVE GROUND. OBVIOUSLY, YOU WILL HAVE NO LIGHT FLASH IF THE BURST IS BELOW GROUND!!]

It has even been suggested that seismic detection of a nuclear detonation could be "gotten-around" by submerging your nuke in a large lake. If you did have on your national territory a lake of sufficient size, you could suspend the nuclear bomb in the water and detonate. The damping effect of the water would possibly be enough to attenuate seismic waves to the point where detectors COULD NOT PICK UP THE DETONATION!!??

Being that nuclear powers [with the exception of Israel] seem TO WANT potential adversaries to know they have THE BOMB, defeating the IMS would seem to be counter-productive.

OR IS IT!!??

coolbert.