Thoughts on the military and military activities of a diverse nature. Free-ranging and eclectic.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006


This is coolbert:

Read this article by a British Admiral. A member of the British military whose task is to determine the future of warfare and the future of threats.

When you read something like this, you have to take notice. This is NOT the ravings of a lunatic or a fanatic. Is well thought out ideas that have a reasonable rational basis to them. It may be that what the Admiral describes will not happen. BUT, it cannot be ignored. Some may say that this sort of stuff is WORST case scenarios. But, military planners like to be able to anticipate the future and make proper plans and preparations FOR worst case scenarios.

"In an apocalyptic vision of security dangers, Rear Admiral Chris Parry said future migrations would be comparable to the Goths and Vandals while north African "barbary" pirates could be attacking yachts and beaches in the Mediterranean within 10 years."

The Barbary pirates. Have just had a blog entry about them. Extinct since the 1830's. Perhaps not for long??

"Europe, including Britain, could be undermined by large immigrant groups with little allegiance to their host countries, a "reverse colonization" as Parry described it. These groups would stay connected to their homelands by the internet and cheap flights. The idea of assimilation was becoming redundant, he said."

The absolute numbers of immigrants living in European enclaves is far greater than the numbers of Europeans that the various colonial powers ever sent "abroad".

Assimilation is not only not achieved, it is discouraged.

And remember that almost all European countries are not places that have EVER had widespread immigration. This is a new experience for them. It is not in their history to accept "others".

Almost no Englishmen prior to World War Two had ever SEEN a non-white person, even thought England ruled an empire consisting of almost all non-white people!!

"Parry [Admiral], head of the development, concepts and doctrine centre at the Ministry of Defence, is charged with identifying the greatest challenges that will frame national security policy in the future."

Identify future threats so preparations can be made and the problem understood!!

"If a security breakdown occurred, he said, it was likely to be brought on by environmental destruction and a population boom, coupled with technology and radical Islam."

NOT necessarily environment destruction in England, rather abroad!! Primarily, I would think Bangladesh!!

"globalization makes assimilation seem redundant and old-fashioned [the process] acts as a sort of reverse colonization, where groups of people are self-contained, going back and forth between their countries, exploiting sophisticated networks and using instant communication on phones and the internet."

And instantaneous crypto embedded for security too. Folks now have technology at their disposal for free that was once the purview of a few at the highest echelons of government and the military!!

Folks like to think of the movement of GOODS alone as being a trend in globalization. Trade. They do NOT think about the mass movements of peoples.

"Third World instability would lick at the edges of the West as pirates attacked holidaymakers from fast boats. "At some time in the next 10 years it may not be safe to sail a yacht between Gibraltar and Malta" said the admiral."

There was a recent issue of Readers Digest that contained an article describing such attacks occurring off the coast of Somalia.

In some areas of the world, it is ALREADY happening. Horn of Africa, Straits of Malacca. What are called "choke points".

The EU is CURRENTLY seeing illegal immigration by BOAT to the Canary Islands, Spain, Italy, Greece, etc. This is happening already. Barbary pirates NEXT??

"Parry . . . foresees wholesale moves by the armed forces to robots, drones, nanotechnology, lasers, microwave weapons, space-based systems, "customized" nuclear and neutron bombs."

I disagree with this. Most of these future problems [wars] will be fought by soldiers killing the "enemy" by shooting them between the eyes from six feet away!

Advanced nations will try to combat the next wave of warfare with high technology weapons. The adversary will use and WILL PREFER low technology armaments.

"He [Parry] identified the most dangerous flashpoints by overlaying maps showing the regions most threatened by factors such as agricultural decline, booming youth populations, water shortages, rising sea levels and radical Islam."

This is called Intelligence Preparation of the Battlefield [IPB].

"Parry predicts that as flood or starvation strikes, the most dangerous zones will be Africa, particularly the northern half; most of the Middle East and central Asia as far as northern China; a strip from Nepal to Indonesia; and perhaps eastern China."

Perhaps the most acute problem will exist in Bangladesh. Rising sea levels, cyclones of greater intensity, a country barely above sea level, a teeming over-population, and radical Islam make for a dangerous mix.

One can suspect that India, next door to Bangladesh, has built that 2500 mile wall for the purpose of forestalling the movement of millions of homeless Bangladeshis. Planning in advance and taking measures before the situation develops.

"He pinpoints 2012 to 2018 as the time when the current global power structure is likely to crumble. Rising nations such as China, India, Brazil and Iran will challenge America's sole superpower status."

2012 to 2018 is not that far away. Supposedly the CIA has briefed Bush that by 2025 changing weather climates will make most of England an uninhabitable frozen tundra!!

"This will come as "irregular activity" such as organised crime and "white companies" of mercenaries burgeon in lawless areas."

Street gangs, terrorists, criminal cartels, countered by so-called vigilantes of "white companies" [I take that to mean private armies of the law-abiding.]

"In an effort to control population growth, some countries may be tempted to copy China's "one child" policy. This, with the widespread preference for male children, could lead to a ratio of boys to girls of as much as 150 to 100 in some countries. This will produce dangerous surpluses of young men with few economic prospects and no female company."

This is the type of unanticipated consequences that occurs when policies are not thought through thoroughly. China will have a big excess of young men without a suitable number of young women to have as mates. Such groups of young men without prospects of marriage, etc., will not be "civilized" and may be prone to un-social behavior.

[the influence of women in "civilizing" unruly populations of men is well known!! The old American West is one such example. A big bunch of single men without women tend to be boisterous when suitable numbers of women are present. The presence of women "civilizes" these "savages".]

"Parry estimated at the conference there were already more than 70 diasporas in Britain."

Parry here is referring to large numbers of non-indigenous persons [non-English], living in concentrated areas [enclaves].

Scary, isn't it!!?? Sure is!! And is happening right now.

China, India, Brazil and Iran may all challenge the U.S. regionally but not on the international stage. At least not for the near future. Brazil and Iran maybe never. Too many of their own problems. Can cause problems, at least Iran can, but not challenge on a grand scale.

Nonetheless, we should pay close attention to what the Admiral says. Those living in the U.S. are not immune either. That is why A WALL is being considered for the border with Mexico.

Europe now, U.S. also now, what tomorrow??



Anonymous JSBolton said...

One could also project that enclaves of hostile nature, are being appeased and will be allowed to metastatize into hostile microsovereignties, inside the boundaries of the very heartlands of civilization.
Suspicion might then arise, such as even to see this as having been the idea for some time. Foreign war is not so great a booster of power for officials as domestic warfare. Such enclaves could soon have their own postage stamps and armies, the appeasement is that extreme in several countries.
Later, the officials having obtained war powers and dictatorship throughout the relevant countries which, tellingly, have been the most resistant to despotism, the enclaves would acquire all the hostiles in such a country, and be squeezed out in warlike manner, out and beyond Europe.

4:51 AM


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