ATGM I.

This is coolbert:

Beginning with the development [World War Two] of the German X-7 wire guided anti-tank-guided-missile [ATGM], followed by the post-war French SS-10, it was now possible for your average, everyday infantry to counter enemy tanks, even at long range.

[close range battle between infantry and tanks was possible prior to that, using the panzerfaust type of rocket, firing a shaped charge round. But ONLY at very close range, less than 200 meters or so. The ATGM allowed for the infantry to engage and destroy enemy tanks at extreme range, out to 2000 meters in some instances!!]

These ATGM, first generation, were wire-guided, using what is called MCLOS for guidance.

MCLOS (short for Manual Command to Line of Sight)

NOT, however, an easy system to use. Required a highly skilled operator, the gunner, to steer and guide the missile [via trailing wires] to the target [the enemy tank]. A gunner who needed to acquire and track the missile and the target simultaneously. NOT an easy task. The weapon [ATGM] was effective and could defeat any known armor at long range, but was hard to use.

"the operator must track the missile and the target simultaneously and guide the missile to the target . . . MCLOS requires considerable training and practice to master"

Even a later version of the ATGM that used MCLOS, the Soviet AT-3 "Sagger" remained a weapon requiring a lot of skill to use effectively.

"While early estimates of the missile hitting the target ranged from 90% to 60%, experience has shown that it is really between 25% and 2% depending on the situation and skill of the operator. MCLOS requires considerable skill on the part of the operator: reportedly it takes 2,300 simulated firings to become proficient with the missile as well as 50 to 60 simulated firings a week to maintain the skill level."

[it was observed by the Israeli during the Yom Kippur/Ramadan war of 1973 that during "lulls" in the fighting, Egyptian ATGM gunners would maintain proficiency via simulator trucks actually BROUGHT TO THE FRONT LINES FOR THAT PURPOSE!!]

In training:

* 60% to 90% hit probability.

In actual combat:

* 2% to 25% hit probability.

What is this? Well, as Dupuy would say, you CANNOT replicate in training the actual conditions of combat. In training, the fear of death on the battlefield is not present and cannot be duplicated. When firing at a target with an ATGM as part of an exercise or training, the "enemy" is not shooting back and trying to kill you.

Those figures as to "hit probability" tell me that an ATGM gunner on the battlefield is only about 1/5th as effective in actual combat as he is in training??

Your hands are shaking, you are breathing deeply, you are keeping your head down!!

Well, sure, intuitively so, this is HOW it is!

coolbert.