GRU Iraq War Reports.

This is coolbert:

Again, I am on the subject of the purported GRU [Russian military intelligence] group that posted on the internet intelligence reports during the earliest days of the Iraq War II. From three years ago this month.
These "experts" describe themselves as being:

"All the 'updates' came out from a compact group formed a few years ago in the framework of a special service. The group used to work for the government for a long time but all its members have left the service and now act as an independent analytical group that has kept some capabilities."

And further, about the sources of information for the reports:

"This gives an answer to the most common question – about the sources of our information . . . . Our updates were not genuine materials from any of Russian or other special services, but rather an 'intellectual product' of the group itself, product of its operative, informational and analytical abilities. But compiling the updates we used materials available from our friends from special information structures."

This would seem to indicate that the persons comprising the "compact group" are free-lancers having a GRU or similar background. And are either developing the info themselves for analysis through informants in Iraq OR intercepts of coalition radio communications done BY THEMSELVES.

As to the sources of info used by the "compact group", I have highlighted those sources as best indicated in the reports. Radio intercepts provide the vast bulk of the sources, as will be seen.

Extracts:

April 7, 2003, 2400hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"According to communications between American commanders the status of least 15 men is unknown."


April 7, 2003, 1914hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"According to intercepted radio communications up to 5 marines were killed, at least 12 wounded. 3 APC and 1 tank were destroyed."

April 5, 2003, 1357hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"After analysis of intercepted radio communications and reports of American commanders it was specified that at the airport there were only parts of the 1st brigade troops, up to 2 enforced battalions with the help of a self-propelled artillery division 3 thousand soldiers and officers strong, 60 tanks and about 20 guns."

"The morning messages about the town Kalak captured have not been confirmed yet, and according to the radio surveillance data the actions only take place at the approaches of the town"


April 4, 2003, 1507hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"According to electronic surveillance the coalition command in Qatar order the attacking US forces to halt on at least three occasions."

"Intercepted radio communications indicate at least three killed or wounded US troops."

"According to radio surveillance, the coalition forces were forced out of the town and thrown back 3-5 kilometers as the result of a three-hour-long firefight."

"Radio surveillance reveals Iraqi resistance units fighting on the territories occupied by the British."

"A Kuwaiti radio source reported an attack last night resulting in a fire on one of the oil wells where the previous fire was just recently extinguished."

[This would be presumably a non-military, open channel, unsecure radio source.]

"Radio surveillance indicates that yesterday coalition troops conducted a massive operation in the town to find the resistance members."

"The US Brig. Gen. Osman, who commands the US troops in this area, told one of the Pentagon officials during a phone conversation: 'for them [the Kurds] to move forward we literally have to throw a stack of dollars in front of them!'"

[This compact group seems to have a lot of disdain and antipathy for the Kurds!!]

[This was a phone conversation with the Pentagon by a General officer in the CLEAR!!??]


April 3, 2003, 1301hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"The radio surveillance units reported the loss of another plane to the north of Baghdad."

April 2, 2003, 1335hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"Intercepted radio communications show that the coalition troops are retreating in small groups and have no exact information about their own losses"

April 1, 2003, 1404hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"Intercepted radio communications show that one US APC was destroyed and at least 5 soldiers were killed and wounded."

"Radio surveillance indicates that during the morning hours of today there were 5 medevac helicopter flights to this area."

"This was reported by one of the US journalist located in this area during a phone conversation with the editor."

[U.S. journalist making report using unsecure open radio channel??]

March 31, 2003, 1828hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"At the same time morning radio intercepts uncovered a large US military convoy moving around the Razzaza Lake."

"Intercepted radio communications indicate that the Marines engineering units are ordered to build a pontoon crossing up the stream from An-Nasiriya and move up to three battalions of Marines and troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to the left bank of the Euphrates for a future strike in the rear of the An-Nasiriya garrison."

"This conversation was taped by the journalist and sent to the editor via a cellular phone network."

[This would indicate that journalists are sending reports, again, over unsecure channels after gleaning information. Open channels subject to intercept and exploitation.]

"Based on the radio intercepts and internal information networks of the US field hospitals as of this morning the coalition losses include no less than 100 killed US servicemen and at least 35 dead British soldiers."

[Internal networks? Unsecure medical commo?]

March 30, 2003, 2042hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"According to radio intercepts, the coalition commander Gen. Tommy Franks has visited the US forces near Karabela."

"During a personal phone conversation with another serviceman in the US one participant of this meeting called this technical state 'depressing'. According to him "...a third of our equipment can be dragged to a junk yard right now. We are holding up only thanks to the round-the-clock maintenance. The real heroes on the front lines are not the Marines but the 'ants' from the repair units. If it wasn't for them we'd be riding camels by now..."

[International communications that the participants thought to be "secure" and unimportant were anything but!! Perhaps this was an Intelsat phone commo?]

"Based on the intercepted radio communications, reports from both sides and other intelligence data, since the beginning of the war the coalition lost 15-20 tanks, around 40 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles, more than 50 military trucks and up to 10 helicopters."

"Radio intercepts show that 2 Marines were killed and 5 were wounded."

"In a closed radio address to the coalition troops the coalition command asked the soldiers to show 'patience and restrain' and 'not to let loose their emotions and feelings of anger'"

[A closed address that was monitored??]

"since yesterday morning all phone and Internet lines used by the coalition troops to maintain contact with relatives in the US and Europe have been shut down at the division level and below."

[So the Russians and presumably others are able to intercept phone and internet commo used by soldiers for "private" usage.]

March 29, 2003, 0924hrs MSK (GMT +4 DST)

"The order for the attack will be given by the coalition commander Gen.
Tommy Franks, who, according to intercepted radio communications, will personally inspect the troops during the next several hours."

[This sort of intelligence can get a commander killed.]

"Intercepted radio communications show that the helicopter was heavily damaged in a combat mission."

"Radio intercepts show that in this attack the Iraqis shot down a British helicopter."

"According to the report, analysis of the television broadcasts, intercepted radio communications, interrogations of Iraqi POWs show that psychologically the Iraqis are now 'more stable and confident' that they were during the last days before the war."

[Psychological evaluations of Iraqi prisoners from video broadcasts.]

"Radio communications intercepted during the last five days suggest that the coalition is using Israeli airfield for conducting night air strikes against Iraq."

"[Russian] radio intercept and radar units observe increased intensity of radio communications coming from the Jordanian air force and air defense communication centers during such overflights, as well as changes in the operating modes of the US Army 'Patriot' tracking radars deployed in Jordan.

March 28, 2003, 1448hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"According to the latest intercepted radio communications, the command of the coalition group of forces near Karabela requested at least 12 more hours to get ready to storm the town."

"Latest radio intercepts from this area show that under a continuous artillery and aerial bombardment the Iraqis have begun to gradually withdraw their forces toward Basra."

March 27, 2003, 2321hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"Intercepted radio communications indicate that tomorrow we should expect a powerful attack by the coalition."



March 27, 2003, 1425hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"Intercepted radio communications show that at around 0615hrs this morning the lead of a flight of two A-10 ground attack planes detected a convoy of armored vehicles."

"Yesterday one of the Russian intelligence sources obtained information about a secret agreement reached between the US and the Turkish government."

[This could very well be a HUMINT source.]


March 26, 2003, 1230hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"radio intercepts indicate, all available repair units have been deployed to the front."

"as intercepted radio communications show, the coalition command is trying to establish the whereabouts of more than 500 of its troops that fell behind their units"


March 25, 2003, 1230hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"According to intercepted radio communications the coalition advance will be tied to the end of the sand storm and is planned to take place during the night of March 26-27."

"there is information about two coalition combat vehicles destroyed by landmines."

[Source of information not specified!!]

"According to radio intelligence at least two US soldiers were killed and no less than six US soldiers were wounded."

"According to satellite reconnaissance it seems likely that the Iraqis had time to remove the captured Apache Longbow attack helicopter of the 11th Aviation Regiment."

[This is from imagery from outer space?]

"There is plenty of intelligence information indicating that so far the US electronic reconnaissance was unable to locate and to penetrate the Iraqi command's communications network, which is an indication of the network's high technological sophistication."

[Information from unspecified sources.]


March 24, 2003, 0800hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"'We can only thank God for having air dominance!' said the commander
of the US 15th Marines Exp. Corps Col. Thomas Waldhauser in a private
conversation with one of the CNN reporters. Later the CNN journalist
cited the Colonel in a phone conversation with his editor. The conversation
was intercepted."

[Journalist betrays confidence of the private conversation by using unsecure means of communication.]

"According to the intercepted radio traffic, the US forces have sustained up to 40 killed, up to 10 captured and up to 200 wounded during the fighting near An-Nasiriya."



Around 2300hrs (MSK, GMT +3) March 23

"Radio intercepts and satellite images show that the town was under constant bombardment throughout out the night."

[Satellite images available to those in Baghdad?]

"Intercepted radio communications indicate that today the British command will attempt to regain the lost ground after spending the night reinforcing their units on Fao with two additional marine infantry battalions."

"Intercepted radio traffic indicates another lost coalition plane this morning."


March 23, 2003, 1200hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"Satellite and signals intelligence show that both sides actively employ armored vehicles in highly mobile attacks and counterattacks."

"According to intercepted radio communications, the British marine infantry units in defensive positions on the Fao peninsula have requested emergency air and artillery support after being attacked by superior Iraqi forces"

"Other intercepted radio traffic suggests that, as the British and US forces bend the Basra - An-Najaf line of defense, the Iraqi command will pull back its main forces to the Al Ammara - Ad-Divaniya line."

"According to radio intercepts during today's night the coalition begun airdropping troops in northern Iraq from airfields in Turkey and Jordan."

"Russian military intelligence has uncovered a range of facts pointing to a separate arrangement between the top leadership of Jordan and the US military command."

[A range of facts from what sources?]

"Available information indicates that coalition special ops units, including up to 400 troops and their command headquarters, have been deployed to the Jordanian Zarka military base and to the home base of the Jordan's 71st special ops brigade."

[Available information from what sources?]

"Intercepted coalition radio traffic shows that most of the bombing attacks against Baghdad are carried out by the US strategic aviation and by sea-launched long-range cruise missiles."

"[Russian] radio intercept units have reported the loss of two coalition planes."



"intercepted radio communications show that the actual number of coalition casualties is at least 55-70 troops killed and no less than 200 wounded."




March 22, 2003, 1300hrs MSK (GMT +3)

Additional information about the situation in the primary combat areas in southern Iraq became available by 1300hrs (Moscow time, GMT +3).

[Additional information from what sources is not specified.]

"Intercepted radio communications indicate that during the morning period of March 22 the US forces lost 10-15 tanks destroyed or disabled and up to 30 other armored vehicles."

"Our sources report that during the early morning hours in southwestern Iraq in the vicinity of Akashat the Iraqi forces have engaged and surrounded a tactical paratroop unit of the 101st Airborne Division."

[Sources not specified.]

"[Russian] radio intercept units report that one the US attack helicopters providing close air support was shot down."

March 22, 2003, 0800hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"Information received during the last night is very contradictory."

[Source of information not specified!!]

"According to intelligence reports, at Umm Qasr American and British forces have sustained 10 killed and around 40 wounded soldiers and officers."

[Sources of intelligence reports is unspecified.]

"According to intercepted radiocommunications,
this division was fighting as a part of the 3rd Army Corp (Al-Nasiriya)."

"Analysis of the video footage of the captured Iraqis, distributed by the coalition press-service, makes it difficult to accept the Iraqi army's "moral breakdown" story advertised by the Americans."

[Analysis of video footage with regard to psychological state of prisoners.]

"Radio intercepts show that up to 25,000 British and American troops are already in the Basra region."

"Russian radio intercept units are certain that at least one coalition combat plane was shot down in these air raids."

"Our sources believe that the high-intensity air strikes will continue for another 24 hours and after that the coalition will be forced to scale down the attacks to conduct additional reconnaissance and to regroup its forces."

[Sources are not specified.]

"A radio intercept made last night at approximately 4:40 am indicated that two British helicopters were shot down by a "Strela" SAM system after flying into a SAM trap."

"During a "radio-bridge" with the commanders of all units Gen. Franks expressed his concern with the mounting casualties and the stubborn Iraqi resistance."

[It is not mentioned if this "radio-bridge" [conference call type of communications via radio] was open or not!!??]

March 21, 2003, 0930hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"The GRU GSh RF radio intercept units reported that during one of such pursuits the Americans lost one of their helicopters."

"According to the intercepted radio communications, mines destroyed some two US armored vehicles."

"Based on the intercepted radio communications Russian military intelligence believes that the Marines have encountered one the Iraqi mobile units."

"Russian intelligence reports that the peninsula is being defended by up to two Iraqi regiments and by the armed civilians from the local population supported by several artillery battalions."

[What the reports have as sources is not specified.]

March 20, 2003, 1015hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"According to Russian radio intercepts of US military communications some 40 cruise missile launches and 200 combat flights were carried out by the US during the first 6 hours of the war against Iraq."

"Based on radio intercepts, several US combat units deployed in the demilitarized zone were bombarded by Iraqi artillery around 0730hrs Moscow time."

"However, Russian agents are reporting that this plot was either uncovered in time or was under control of the Iraqi security agencies from the very beginning."

[Russian agents under control of the GRU. Persons perhaps in the Iraqi security apparatus.]

"Information obtained by the radio intercept units of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Russian Armed Forces (GRU VS RF) shows that the majority of the Iraqi air defenses did not take part in the deflection of the initial US air strike."

March 19, 2003, 0403hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"Based on the intercepted US military communications the Russian military intelligence believes that the US command is attempting to create a false impression of a pending massive ground attack on Basra."

March 18, 2003, 0126hrs MSK (GMT +3)

"According to the information received from one of the Russian Defense Ministry's radio intercept units, certain aspects of the planned military operation against Iraq were uncovered by the Russian military intel. During one of the radio communications between Kurd troops information was intercepted indicating that during the next 48 hours there may be a large-scale airdrop of US troops in Kurd-controlled northern Iraq."

"Information obtained from additional sources shows that Turkey's refusal to permit a large number of US ground troops on its territory threw into turmoil the US plans for invading Iraq from the north."

It is not specified what "additional sources" are. Presumbably HUMINT?

"Radio intercepts of Kurdish and some Turkish sources allow for a reasonable conclusion that with the beginning of the military operation the US will rely on Turkey's permission to use its airspace to transport between 18,000-22,000 troops in two days to Northern Kurdistan."

[With regard to the reporters and journalists being briefed and then sending their "take" via cell phones and unsecure radio commo is something that the enemy in VIETNAM was able to exploit. NO matter if the U.S. unit used secure commo, the units situation could be compromised by unsecure commo usage of an embedded journalist.]

coolbert.