Bases.

This is coolbert:

A careful examination of a map of the Middle East and the Indian Ocean does seem to indicate that there is a basing question with regard to the Israeli submarines that have allegedly been deployed with nuclear tipped cruise missiles on them.

There are several considerations here that have to be accounted for.

One is the purported range of the Popeye cruise missile that the Dolphin class submarines of the Israeli will be carrying.

The Popeye in so-called extended range version will have a maximum range of 1500 kilometers. Using the Popeye to cover all possible targets in Pakistan and Iran, the submarine would have to fire it's missiles from the protected waters of the Gulf of Oman, in the Indian Ocean. Having the Dolphins in the Mediterranean only would not allow the Popeye to hit all potential targets in both countries, if an any targets at all. The range of the Popeye would just not be great enough.

Two qualifiers regarding the Popeye and any other cruise missile the Israelis may be intending to employ as submarine launched nuclear capable weaponry.

One qualifier is the that Popeye in current form has a range of much less than 1500 kilometers. An extended version Popeye with greater fuel capacity is rumored to exist and have been tested, but this is just speculation.

The second qualifier is that perhaps the Popeye is not the cruise missile intended for the Dolphin class subs. Some "experts" have speculated that the 650 mm diameter torpedo tubes [four on each Dolphin specially fitted at the request of the Israelis], is intended to accommodate the now obsolete Soviet SS-N-21 cruise missile [range estimated to be from 2400 to 3000 kilometers. Click here to see a site about this Soviet cruise missile [called the Kh-55 in Soviet parlance]]. Either the Israelis are purchasing the retired missiles from the Russians or copying and building their own, with modifications and improvements. Again, this is all speculation at this point.




[As I have mentioned in previous blogs, the Israeli tends to have an excellent, adept, and innovative ordnance department. Weapons experts that can take a basic weapon system developed in another country, and improve in a dramatic and sometimes markedly more effective manner. To extend the range of the basic Popeye or copy and build the old Soviet SS-N-21 and create a much better cruise missile is not beyond the ability of the Israeli. Far from it!!]

"The difficult we are doing now, the impossible, give us some time" - - David Ben Gurion.

The second consideration regarding basing of the Israeli Dolphins is that the endurance of the Dolphins is rated at thirty days. By that I infer that the fuel capacity is such that the Dolphin can cruise for thirty days before returning to base for refueling. This will place a restriction, markedly so, on the ability of the Dolphins to sail from home base, say from Eilat on the Gulf of Aqaba, transit the gulf, the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden and arrive on station at the Gulf of Oman. Sailing at say a rate of ten knots, the Dolphin would arrive at the Gulf of Oman in say about fifteen days [This calculation is based upon the distance from Eilat in Israel to the Gulf of Oman by the shortest distance, at a cruising speed of ten knots. Ten knots is submerged all the way snorkeling when necessary]. At that point, the sub would immediately have to return to port at Eilat for refueling!!

This creates an unfeasible situation regarding deterrence.

Having your submarine sail to station in the Gulf of Oman and then have to return immediately or risk running out of fuel is an exercise in futility. Some sort of alternative will have to be found.

Again, "experts" have suggest possible alternative basing for the Dolphins, basing for the Indian Ocean scenario of Dolphin deployment. Israeli overseas bases for the Dolphins have been proposed at the possible sites:

Dahlek archipelago - - Eritrea. [the Russians at one time had a naval base here.

Bab El Mandab - -Islands at the southern most point of the Red Sea.

Mumbai - - India. [Mumbai used to be known as Bombay].

My own personal perception of overseas bases for the Israeli Dolphins is that it is highly unlikely. Israel to my knowledge has never based it's military overseas, with the exception of training units, such as for the training of the Dolphins themselves. And the security and political ramifications would be enormous [especially if the perception was that these were bases for nuclear equipped units]. Foreign bases?? Possible, but highly unlikely. [it was reported that at one time, Israeli commandos did occupy the Bab El Mandab islands as a precaution against attack from Arab fanatics targeting Israeli commercial shipping transitting the passage in/out of the Red Sea].

Here is my own alternative possibility to the basing problem. Mid-oceanic refueling by Israeli commercial freighters equipped as tankers. Not an easy task, and would be risky from the standpoint of exposing the surfaced Israeli sub to attack. But this could be a possibility.

Only time will tell about these scenarios.

coolbert.