4GW - Israel.
This is coolbert:
Go here to read an article that suggests that Israel is doomed. Doomed in the long run from fourth generational warfare [4GW] as practiced by the Palestinian.
Taken from Defense and the National Interest [D-N-I].
[this is a good military web site. Again, as with G2mil, iconoclastic. You might not like what you read, but "if we are all thinking the same, we are not thinking" - - Patton.]
"The Fate of Israel"
By Fabius Maximus
"It seems obvious who will win. Israel might last 100 years if its people are both lucky and skillful. Nevertheless, in the future only historians will know that the war's outcome was ever [never] in doubt. Much as today's students see the Hundred Years War between England and France, Israel's end will seem inevitable to them."
Why is this??
"The Palestinian people have five great strategic advantages over Israel."
* "First, the Palestinians are weaker than Israel. Not only do Americans often admire underdogs, but also weakness is in itself a profound advantage . . . giving themselves and their supporters belief that they have the moral high ground."
* "Second, entropy acts as the Palestinian's ally. It is easier to destroy than build."
* "Third, the increasing concentration of global oil production in the Middle East strengthens the Palestinian's allies, and weakens willingness of developed nations to challenge them."
* "Fourth, western nations on whose support Israel dependents for financial support and trade hold Israel to higher ethical standards than they hold the Palestinians."
* "Last, demographic trends point to increasing and inevitable weakness of Israel vs. the Palestinians."
"As Vietnam and countless other cases prove, no armed force however rich, however powerful, however advanced, and however well motivated is immune to this dilemma. The end result is always disintegration and defeat .."
[to which I would say, if this 4GW is so good, why aren't the Tibetans using 4GW to free their land? Or the folks in Darfur using 4GW to defeat the Sudanese government? If it works in "countless" cases, why not in those case too!!!???]
"Mao would have appreciated the commitment of the Palestinians as they wage a protracted struggle against Israel."
Mao? Mao? Mao? Where have I heard that name before? Wasn't he one of those persons that saw the demise of the United States in his life time and the eventual triumph of world-wide communism? Saw that communism was the replacement for capitalism being as certain as the "sun rising in the east", or something like that??!!
Read it all! You judge!!
[I am going to ask an Israeli blogger about this. See what his comments are!!]
coolbert.
Labels: Israel
5 Comments:
I guess this "Fabius" ia like our good president and his war on "terror", aware of a problem but incapable or unwilling of properly identifying it. How one could claim presumably to write an informed article on Israel's fate without using expressions as: islam, Mohammed, jihad, lesser jihad, qu'ran, sunnah, arab (not so called palestinian), world-wide islamic caliphate, taqiyya, kitman, submission, The Holocaust, exodus, diaspora, 7-11, 9-11, Madrid, Paris banlieue riots by "youths" and Western Civilization, is beyond me.
An aside on Secretary Rumsfeld: I regret he will not preside over the military transformation/reform we need. He was a man who would push and prod until the job was done. I regret he does not understand the transformation he sought could have been achieved if the forces were withdrawn after Saddam's capture, preserving American lives and treasure; getting out of the way of barbarous muslims bent on killing themselves.
In the 1980's, Americans never lost sleep when the ayatollah and Saddam were having at each other.
10:58 PM
Historically, superior civilization tends to win and expand at the expense of the much less so.
The Palestinians have an asymmetry there which will never close so long as they retain their identity as moslems and as savage resenters of their neighbors who have more.
They will always be counting on Israeli forbearance, but why should that hesitancy to inflict damage on savages, be expected to last years, much less a century?
2:12 AM
Sir,
I am Israeli blogger who volunteers his comment.
(1) The Palestinians have the advantage of being weaker. Coolbert, you must be kidding. In which military history book did you find an example of a people packingup and vacating its country to a much weaker, even powerless, enemy? Dont you think we shall use our power, all our power, our ultimate power, when faced with an existencial menace? Never again means, sir, never again.
Entropy works universally. We are a very old people, resisted much enthropy. The palestinians... are they a people? they dont seem to be able to govern themselves, to act in concern. A 100 years ago they didnt exist as an entity and in another 100 they may have disappeared again. They have no history nor identity.
Oil - there is no oil in Israel. There is oil elsewhere.
Demography... the fact is that slowly Arabs became a minority inthis country, and the trend continues... Jewish fertility in Israel is increasing while Arab is decreasing mightily and soon shall be like the Lebanese or Greek or Iranian, that is, negative. Palestinians are a Mediterranean population and the trend is negative, lead by Italians and Greeks. Demography is working for us.
I am very optimist about Israel and even Warren Buffet invests in Israel. We are here for the long term, forever, maybe.
6:00 AM
Bert: Well, I like comments. And this particular blog topic seems to have stimulated some thought. I must point out that the article I was quoting was by Fabius Maximus and NOT myself. I was just repeating and put it out there for discussion. And it has been commented on. That is good. That D-N-I site promotes the concept of 4GW as being THE thing. Correct, but not so fully as they maintain. Israel is NOT DOWN and out. Problems are ahead, but that is true for MOST ANYONE!
Bert.
7:58 AM
I just stumpled on this via Google. Thanks for the post! There were some interesting comments, here are a few responses.
a. Mao brought 4th generation warfare to maturity, whatever his flaws as an economist or political scientist. This is validated by battlefield victory over a far larger and better supplied foe. Better men than him have won and had no -- or terrible -- ideas how to use their victory. Like Caesar.
b. "superior civilization tends to win and expand at the expense of the much less so."
So that's why Rome defeated its barbarian invaders? History is filled with instances of "superior" civilizations falling to barbarians.
c. "In which military history book did you find an example of a people packingup and vacating its country to a much weaker, even powerless, enemy?"
The power of weakness is a central tenent of 4GW, too complex to explain here. However there are historical precedents, from the American Revolution to the USSR abandoning its Empire, freeing not just Eastern Europe but parts of its soverign territory -- with no armed threat at all, internal or external.
d. Jamito is dreaming about the demographics in and around Israel. Check the numbers (there were links in my article).
1:27 PM
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